Global Economic Reset/ Collapse - 2017-18
When will it be? Likely to take place starting September - November 2017.
It’s long been speculated that there will be a new Global Economic Crisis in the near future following on from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. But the question that has never been answered is, when will this economic collapse actually occur?
In late 2016, in the shadows of the potentially crucial, or alternatively, potentially completely irrelevant, US Presidential Election from which we are most likely to arrive in early 2017 with a President DJ Trump or alternatively, a second, and undoubtedly, less capable than her philandering husband, President Clinton 2.0, it is time to take a look forward at what is likely to play out over the next 12-18 months, effectively the first year of the new Presidency running from 2017 into 2018.
To answer the question put to hand, one must appreciate the different forces at work to prevent, or at least, forestall, the next global economic collapse, or reset. So what are the forces driving the world economy towards the cliff and what will the trigger be to commence the next global economic collapse?
Most glaringly, in today’s post Global Financial Crisis world, Central Banks in the Western world have taken an increasingly important and integral role in implementing policies that “stimulate” growth, or at least appear to, and keep the economies of the world functioning and sustaining themselves in the face of political timidity and the abject absence of any meaningful structural reform to sclerotic Western economies in recent years.
So what is the primary policy of the Western central banks in their efforts to stave off what seems an inevitable global economic collapse, part two of the Global Financial Crisis? GFC 2.0 if you want to adopt the language of the Silicon Valley driven world that we now live in?
Quite simply it is to debase the value of money and currencies around the world to a heretofore unimagined degree. And where does all this so-called “money-printing” or more accurately, slavish, slovenly, lascivious digital masturbatory key’stroking’ go? Well, it flows most prominently and continuously into inflated asset prices - whether that be the fine art of impressionist mainstays, or the jazzed-up, misunderstood but slyly appreciated, new age neo-post-modernist contemporary shtick, whether that be over-priced and under-capitalised fashionable ‘FANG’ stocks, or venerable industrials that have spent years borrowing this debased currency to buyback their shares and pump up shareholder returns, and managerial compensation by way of these obscenely inflated share prices, or whether that be sprawling estates in the genteel British countryside, or the glamourous penthouses of Central Park West with their sumptuous views of the New York skyline.
Wherever it finds it’s way wending through the complex and convoluted Western economic and financial system, this debased currency has pumped and primed asset prices across a series of asset classes into a stupendous financial bubble the likes of which we have never seen before in its global breadth.
So where do we go from here?
The more insane central bank policies which include ZIRP - Zero Interest Rate Policy, the even more ridiculous NIRP - Negative Interest Rate Policy, QE I, QE II, QE III, QE IV, QE V, QE to Infinity, the purchasing of ever more questionable bonds, from sovereign countries, from AAA rated corporations, to AA rated companies, to B rated junk, to equities around the world. In fact, in recent months the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been purchasing copious amounts of foreign equities in an effort to depress the exchange rate of the venerable Swiss franc to ensure the competitiveness of Swiss exporters. This policy in particular has continued to such a degree as to make the Swiss National Bank one of the largest holders of Facebook stock for instance! The eighth largest at last count! As crazy as that may be, there is as yet no end in sight to this moronic non-policy and insanity.
One possible outcome of a continuation of these sort of ill-thought out policies is the ownership of all means of production and in fact the entirety of the largest corporations the world over. The first set of companies set to fall under these inept policies are the Western banks. Why? Because they simply can’t create a sustainable profit model with interest rates so low as to be negative, and so low as to be slowly, but surely, destroying the capital of Western banks which will eventually drive them all to the wall, or more accurately, into the hands of a desperate saviour, the Government.
The merger of Governments around the world and the largest corporate behemouths into a single amorphous blob of gigantic corruption and mendacity can only be described as a new descent into fascism. The overwhelming extent of the current surveillance state, revealed to a large degree in it’s frightening pervasiveness by the courageous actions of one Edward J. Snowden, and resembling the dystopic vision of the future portrayed in George Orwell’s seminal work of art, 1984, are pointers to the danger all thinking citizens of the world face in this day and age as compared to previous fascistic episodes in decades past.
BREXIT
However, although this is a possible outcome of these policies, it is far from the only outcome that we are likely to experience. And why is that? Because the democratic impulse in Western societies is beginning to rear it’s head and candidates and causes that advocate against this sort of anti-democratic top-down elitist monstrosity are emerging, and better yet, they are fighting back and winning.
Thankyou Charlie Sheen - WINNING. The voice of a discredited Hollywood anti-hero appropriated in a far more meaningful manner by the stirrings of people power worldwide. For all who strive for freedom, it is a beautiful sight to behold.
In the United Kingdom the former Prime Minister David Cameron’s arrogant and ham-handed attempt to marginalise his Tory backbenchers, and the rising political force of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) led by the charismatic and personable Nigel Farage, by calling a referendum to question the British membership of the European Union (EU), led instead to the rejection of the EU plutocratic-socialist-neo-feudalist fascist elite in a resounding vote to exit the EU - the triumph of Brexit.
Most tellingly, the vote against continuing membership of the EU was widespread across the British isles, with only three regions, Northern Ireland (just barely), Scotland, and the detached and globalist enclave of London, voting to remain in the abomination known as the EU, although more correctly referred to as the EUSSR - the successor to the misbegotten, and scarcely missed, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the USSR. In fact, when one looks at England, Little England, that bastion of the democratic tradition, a solid 55% of English voters exercising their democratic choice opted to vote for the formerly derided term of Brexit - now a synonym for the victory of the masses against the perfidy of the elite.
Indeed. Perfidious Albion elites be gone.
UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - CLINTON V TRUMP
The same impulse can be seen in several other important and leading Western democracies, most prominently of course in the centre of Western Empire - the United States of America - the ol US of A. An incredibly unconventional and in many ways of irredeemably flawed candidate, one Donald J. Trump, has emerged as the standard bearer of a virulent strain of anti-globalist desire and looks set to triumph in his battle against the Establishment darling, Hillary Rodham Clinton, referred to disparagingly as Hitlery R. Klingon by many who wish to be free of the suffocating embrace of NWO globalist fascism she represents in her reptilian splendour.
And I use that word advisedly, Mrs. Klingon is most assuredly not a reptile in human form, merely a ‘deeply disliked and despised and repulsive’ figure with ‘no redeeming features’ - in other words a disgraceful and disgraced abject failure as a human, someone to whom the moniker ‘reptilian’ can be liberally and assuredly applied. Someone to whom no sin can be considered beneath her consideration. Someone to whom no scintilla of trust or respect can be given. Someone to whom all free-thinking individuals must reject wholeheartedly and completely.
For Americans that rejection must be displayed at the ballot box this Tuesday November 8th. For the rest of us alien to this voting process, all thoughts and encouragement must be given to those that would oppose the rise of NWO global fascism as represented by Mrs. Klingon.
But of course, there are other battles that will be fought over the coming 12 months that demand our attention and respect, and these battles must be taken into our hearts and fought for as gallantly and respectfully as we can muster.
HUNGARY, ITALY & AUSTRIA LATE IN 2016
On Sunday October 2nd Hungary votes in the first of these new battles - a Hungarian referendum on the simple matter of controlling its own borders. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the truly outstanding and forthright leaders of our generation, is to be supported in his fight for Hunary to control its own borders and to reject the attempt by the misdirected and misled European Union under the perverse matronage of one ‘Mutt’ Merkel and her partner in obsessive compulsive criminality (OCC) Jean-Claude Juncker, the erstwhile shortcoming of a European Commission President, el alcoholio.
Following the Hungarian vote for freedom, which one can not doubt the brave Hungarians will grasp tightly to their bosom, there comes a curiously Italian constitutional referendum on obscure Senate reform. Essentially designed to disenfranchise the Italian people, globalist lovechild Italian Prime Miniature, Matteo Renzi, has promised, although he has since tried to walk back on his word, to put his job on the line in the event of a defeat at this constitutional referendum.
This offering of a red rag to a bullish population of Italians who have not seen personal income growth, or indeed any real economic growth at all, since the turn of the millennium, will most assuredly result in a resounding defeat of Renzi’s proposals and a drive to fresh Italian Parliamentary elections in the new year. Of course, at fresh Italian elections Renzi’s time as Prime Minister will come to an abrupt halt, and his likely replacements in the leadership positions of the Italian Government will spring forth from the insurgent Five Star Movement (M5S). Of course, there is no guarantee that the proponents of the M5S actually have any answers for the Italian malaise - however, what they do have is a neutron bomb to explode the facade of the ‘Emperor with no clothes’ - the much, and deservedly so, maligned, European currency - the Euro.
Godspeed to Beppe Grillo and his band of merry men and women out to change the reality of the Italian experience from one of malaise and stagnation, to one of creative disruption and upheaval - whatever that shall in reality entail.
Salute!!!
Next we head across the Tyrol mountains to the north to the much ballyhooed, and much delayed, Austrian Presidential Election run-off re-run between the establishment darling, Alexander Van der Bellend of the Austrian Greens Party and the insurgent candidate represented by Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party of Austria.
Now set down for the first Sunday in December, the Austrian Presidential Election run-off re-run has been couched in farcical intrigue since the original run-off election result was nullified by an Austrian court because of irregularities pertaining to the counting of postal votes which perhaps unsurprisingly heavily favoured the archetypal watermelon Van der Bellend, and then even more ridiculously, the first date for the run-off re-run, set down for the first Sunday of October, had to be delayed due to the unsuitability of glue being used on those same pesky postal ballots! Amateur hour all round it would seem!
Hofer has led in the polls for much of the time since the initial run-off was invalidated, and there is conspiratorial-laden speculation that “glue-gate” is a delaying tactic to allow time for the establishment to discredit Hofer whilst providing a late boost to their man der Bellend. Be that as it may, the, sweeping victories that will occur in the lead-up to this run-off, the victories of Orban, Trump, and the resistors to Renzi’s anti-democratic choice in Italy, will ensure Hofer cruises to victory in Austria in early December.
And thus ends 2016, and begins the year of upheaval and turmoil, 2017.
2017 - NETHERLANDS, FRANCE & GERMANY
2017 promises to be a year of plenty - a new US President inaugurated in January, likely to be the continually written-off Donald J Trump, followed by the likely triggering of Article 50 by newly appointed United Kingdom Prime Minister, Theresa May - which has been slated for early in the year, but in reality could be at any time in the New Year, and then a trio of important elections in 3 of the 5 biggest Euro polities (and perhaps even all 5 if Italy & Spain shall find themselves again at the polls after inconclusive elections and a failed Italian referendum led by Renzi) - in order the Netherlands, France and finally the largest of them all, Germany, to conclude this year of elections 12 months from now in late 2017.
So let’s go through this trio of elections and speculate on the likely outcomes of a trio of elections that will be crucial not only to the future of the European Union, but also to the shape of things to come once the Global Financial Collapse - GFC 2.0 - arrives at the conclusion of this election season. The simple truth is that it is these 3 elections that contain the last hope for Europe to avoid being dragged further into conflicts against the collective will of its people, and done only due to the craven spinelessness of a bunch of talentless and visionless “leaders” (a word one only applies to the likes of ‘Mutt’ Merkel, Francois ‘Nollande’ and the pygmy of the bunch, Mark Rutte(d) of the Netherlands).
THE NETHERLANDS AND THE RISE OF FREEDOM FIGHTING GEERT WILDERS
So where do we start? We start in the lowlands of the Netherlands. Clearly the Eurozone’s 5th largest economy, the Netherlands has been led up the garden path by the hollow man Rutte. A man so blind to justice that he would allow nearly 200 of his countrymen to be blown out of the sky aboard Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in July 2014 and align himself and endorse such flawed investigations as the DSB - Dutch Safety Board inquiry, and the JIT - Joint Investigation Team comprising of the Ukraine (a prime suspect in the disaster- in fact the prime suspect and the party with the most motive), neighbours Belgium, Airline operator Malaysia and a nation on the other side of the world which also suffered a great deal of casualties in the tragedy - Australia.
Rutte’s shameful sycophantic performance in response to the tragedy has ensured there will never truly be justice for the 193 Dutch victims. The excursion down the alternate reality posited by these compromised investigative and prosecutorial agencies has gone too far and had far too much political capital now invested to be walked back at this late stage - it is simply contrary to broader Western NeoCon NWO interests to do so, so it won’t be.
The Dutch Parliament consists of 150 seats, and Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom & Democracy (VVD) - currently the largest party in Parliament with 41 seats is in coalition with the second largest party the Labour Party (PvdA) with 38 seats - enough for a clear majority of 79 seats. Both are clearly ahead of the third placed Party for Freedom (PVV) led by the aforementioned Opposition Leader Geert Wilders with 15 seats and a host of smaller parties which hold just over a third of the seats (56) in the Dutch Parliament.
Wilders represents the chance of a new direction for the Netherlands that would bring justice to an emasculated citizenry and provide a new hope that Europe can learn the lessons of the ‘Brexit’ vote and chart a better more peaceful course for the future free of the top-down NWO oligarchy it currently appears to be heading inexorably towards.
Wilders has already promised Dutch voters he will call a referendum on the status of the Netherlands in the European Union along a similar vein to the Brexit referendum - a so-called ‘Netherexit’ - there are even websites springing up already in favour of the motion - www.netherexit.com being one, should he and the Party for Freedom that he leads be elected to form the next Dutch Government. As the current state of the Dutch Parliament shows, Wilders and the PVV face an uphill battle to achieve this goal, however, although the odds most definitely appear stacked against this eventuality there are definitely factors yet to come into play that will aid and encourage Wilders and the PVV in the months ahead.
The bottom line is that the PVV is certain to increase its hare of the vote impressively and massively in 2017, although whether it will be enough to sweep Wilders to what many would see as an improbable victory is impossible to say nearly six months before the Dutch volk head to the polls.
FRANCE AND THE WELL OVERDUE WATERLOO FOR HOLLANDE
And then following the Dutch General Election - set for Wednesday March 17, we turn southward, and in the very next month of April 2017, we arrive in France for the First Round of the French Presidential Election - the very Gaullic entree to the showdown of the French Presidential Election run-off set for the first Sunday in May, Sunday May 7th.
So who are the candidates to take the mantle of French President forward through the interesting times of 2017-2022, and perhaps beyond? Well of course there is the current imbecilic non-entity of an incumbent, Mr. Francois “Non” Hollande - “Non” because this many has proven completely incapable of developing rational and persuasive solutions to France’s many problems and been an abject failure as the current leader of the Fifth Republic.
Mr. ‘Nollande’ will be standing again for a renewed mandate as President, however, his well-documented idiocy will ensure he stands no chance of continuing his time in office as one of Europe’s most lily-livered and uninspiring ‘leaders’ - for he is nothing of the sort.
So if ‘Frank is sank’ as it is entirely appropriate to conclude, who will replace him? The most prominent candidates are to be found in the re-branded ‘Les Republicains’ (formerly the UMP - Union for a Popular Movement) including the reinvigorated, if not convincingly re-invented, former President Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy faces a fight against several other candidates within Les Republicains including Alain Juppe - a former French Prime Minister under former UMP President in the 1990s, President Jacques Chirac, another former French Prime Minister, Francois Fillon - who in fact served under Sarkozy, and an assortment of another dozen candidates vying for the candidature.
It appears almost certain that the candidate to emerge from ‘Les Republicains’ will be either Sarkozy or Juppe - the most recent polls have Juppe leading with around 40% support of likely ‘Les Republicains’ primary voters ahead of Sarkozy on around 30% support. The primaries are scheduled to happen over two rounds in late November - a first voting round on Saturday November 20 followed by a run-off if required a week later on the last Saturday of the month, Saturday November 27.
Although both are undoubtedly candidates of the “Establishment” it will be interesting to observe whether the result of the United States Presidential Election of a few weeks prior influences the respective chances of Juppe and Sarkozy. Of the two, Juppe is regarded as the more ‘moderate’ candidate whilst Sarkozy has been accused of trying to ‘steal’ many of the policies of ‘Front National’ - commonly referred to in Engliash as the National Front.
Which brings us to the most interesting candidate in the field, and the candidate in whom the hopes of Europe, and indeed the hopes of any Europeans striving for freedom from the current tyranny of globalist nonsense, must be vested - that of Front National Leader Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen will undoubtedly repeat the feat of her father, the former leader and founder of Front National Jean-Marie Le Pen, and advance to the second round of the Presidential Election as Le Pen snr. did in 2002. However Le Pen snr. completely failed to increase the Front National vote in the second round of the Presidential Election (16.9% of the vote in the first round was improved only marginally to 17.8% in the second round) and Le Pen suffered a record defeat against incumbent President Jacques Chirac. However, the younger Le Pen jnr is sure to improve on this effort.
Le Pen jnr. managed 17.9% in the first round of the Presidential Election in 2012, beaten into third place by Hollande & Sarkozy, although the unpopularity of both of these candidates as discussed ensures Le Pen will enjoy a much improved performance this time round. Le Pen is all but certain to advance to the second round given polls consistently show she enjoys broadbased support running about double her performance in 2012.
Given the collapse in support for Hollande’s socialist numpties, it appears most likely Le Pen will face off against either Sarkozy or Juppe - which is why the ‘Les Republicains’ primary headlined between the two is so important - whoever wins will assume favouritism against Le Pen. However, despite this inbuilt establishment favouritism in the French Republic, the insurgency of Le Pen is nevertheless increasingly viewed as a viable alternative and is likely to continue to gain support in the months ahead - particularly if further terrorist atrocities are committed and the inbound immigration spigot from the Middle East is turned on again - which it will might, but more on that later.
As things stand in late 2016, Le Pen is a rising star in the European political firmament and on track to shake things up not only in France, but in the wider context of the European political scene. Le Pen stands as perhaps the greatest hope for 2017, and the greatest hope at destroying the pernicious and pervasive thuggery and lawlessness of NATO and their fellow travelling circus animals in the European Union - Le Pen has the wherewithal and personal strength to see this task through, but will she find the support from the populace she needs?
Update:
Well, several months along from November and the picture is not really any clearer in France, if anything, it’s only more confusing!
Hollande has officially withdrawn from consideration - given his incredible unpopularity that is hardly surprising! Hollande never stood any chance of re-election, and the prospects of securing the nomination of even his own party were nil to non-existent such was his foolish and inept performance as President, which sadly we must endure for several more months before there is at least a change - whether it will be for the better is of course impossible to say - but if that person shall be Le Pen, for the better it will be.
With Hollande out of the picture, the field was thrown wide-open for the primary of the Socialist Party - Prime Minister Manuel Valls through his hat into the ring and was immediately anointed as the front-runner competing with the likes of Minister of the Economy Arnaud Montebourg, former Hollande Government Minister of Education Benoit Hamon and an assortment of other hopefuls and chancers - none of whom actually stood even a skerrick of a chance, but what the hell.
As it turns out, the purer left-wing appeal, the more convincing and legitimate outsider claims of Benoit Hamon - who himself quit the Hollande Government in mid-2014 after complaining the Hollande Government had abandoned it’s socialist roots and sold out to the global plutocracy, were easily preferred to both of the perceived insiders - including Economy Minister Montebourg in the first round (Hamon: 36.03% cf. Valls: 31.48% cf. Montebourg: 17.52% cf. 4 Others: 14.97%).
Montebourg was knocked out, conceded, and subsequently endorsed outsider Hamon for the nomination - sealing his victory and the clear defeat of Valls a week later - Hamon (58.70%) cf. Valls (41.30%) - once again a comprehensive victory for the perceived ‘outsider’ at the expense of any and all insiders.
And so Hamon goes through with something of a clean slate to take on front-runner Francois Fillon of the Republicains, Marine Le Pen of the National Front and another former Hollande Government Minister Emmanuel Macron, another former Minister of the Economy. As present polling stands, all four candidates are polling in a tight field between 16-25% of the populace with Le Pen the clear first-round front-runner on track to receive at least 25% of the vote and a place in the second-round run-off.
But who will Le Pen’s opponent be? Faux Right-winger and former Sarkozy Government Prime Minister Francois Fillon? Or two rebels from the current Hollande Government who abandoned Mr. Hopeless Hollande when his incompetence became too much for them to bear? Former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron or former Education Minister Benoit Hamon?
It’s impossible to say who of these three will pull through to the run-off, and in that second round, it’s impossible to say where the defeated candidates’ support will go - although at present the mainstream assumption, and might I add an incorrect and erroneous, assumption is that it will go to whoever the candidate is that’s opposed to Le Pen - however, it’s my belief, that the muddier the waters become around the French Presidential race, and the more intrigue emerges about each of the candidates - the more likely it is that Le Pen will indeed pull out the unlikely victory to build on the victory of Wilders in the Netherlands only weeks beforehand - but he may well be prevented from forming Government - Le Pen won’t.
Of late, the waters of the race have been muddied even further by a deepening scandal involving front-runner Fillon, and his employment of his wife and children in positions drawing large salaries for work that they apparently never did! Well, that is the scuttlebutt, and the type of thing for which Fillon is being accused is something the French aristocracy has engaged in for decades, and decades beforehand - in other words, it is nothing new - so why the outrage now about Fillon? That indeed is a question worth asking, but one of the most expounded upon theories is that Fillon’s perceived closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind this upsurge in muck-racking directed in his direction to discredit his candidacy.
That could indeed be the case and the motivation is thus for a match-up between Le Pen and either of Hamon or Macron. In that scenario, I believe Le Pen would draw many of Fillon’s voters across to her vision and storm to an unexpected victory - the third leg of the trifecta after Brexit and Trump.
Viva Le Pen!
GERMANY - MUTTI’S MIGRANT MADNESS SET TO PLUNGE EUROPE INTO A LEADERLESS VACUUM
One can only hope, for the next stop on this magical European Elections tour is off in a northward direction, over to the impregnable centre of the European project in Germany. A tougher nut to crack than any of those that have come before it, Germany also represents the last stop on the tour of major country elections that will determine whether Europe can emerge from its current malaise without descending into a potentially hyper-destructive conflict with Russia which is highly avoidable, but also apparently highly desirable for many of the sickest nuts in the Washington political establishment who seem hell-bent on sowing destruction and discord wherever they may around the world.
And so to Germany, the heart of the European project, the epicentre from which the Chancellor of over a decade, one, Angela “Mutti - The Mutt” Merkel presides over and leads the European project down the path to certain disaster. For although her minions throughout Europe certainly share a degree of culpability in the descent of the European project into ignominy and history’s page, it is ‘Mama’ Merkel that richly deserves most of the faint praised by which she will be damned in time.
But, despite this reality, Merkel has managed to hoodwink much of the European political and economic elite into buying into her inanities and insanities, and that trick has worked even more so on the poor burghers of Mitteleuropa, most particularly those of Deutsche extraction of course.
The troubles with Germany’s largest bank, Deutschebank, are emblematic of the wool Merkel has pulled over the eyes of many Germans. Deutschebank, or DB as it is widely known, is effectively a giant cancer at the heart of the European banking system - and has been for years. DB has literally trillions of dollars of derivative exposures that were the markets to turn southward as they inevitably will one day, would explode and destroy not on DB, but the entire European banking system, and indeed the entire European currency project - the euro.
Unfortunately for Europeans, there is no discernible impetus on the part of the European political leaders to prepare any sort of meaningful contingency to thwart these problems when they do arise at some point in the near future. In fact this only adds to the suspicion that there is a backup plan at work that involves capitalising on that very crisis. As a certain former Chief of Staff to the time-short current President Barack Obama once famously quoted - ‘Never let a serious crisis go to waste’.
So, in that vein, the forthcoming German elections represent something of a quandary. Will the German volk wake up and turf ‘Mutti’ to the curb after more than a decade in the driver’s seat of Europe, or will some oblivious level of imagined comfort drive Germans to re-elect Merkel to yet another term - if indeed she decides to stand, which I have to believe she will?
In fact, at this stage, it appears impossible to tell which way the German cookie will crumble, and Merkel would even be the slight favourite to remain Chancellor heading towards the end of 2017. However, there is an inordinate amount of water to pass under the bridge politically between now and then.
As already outlined in this very piece, significant changes in leadership in countries as important and diverse as Italy, France, the Netherlands, Austria and of course the United States portend that in a year’s time Germans too will ‘join the party’ so to speak to turf out their corrupt establishment enablers of the political scene and replace them with a new breed who can hardly be any worse, and, in fact, may be the best and only hopes of avoiding a disastrous conflict primarily fought once again on European soil.
Given this ongoing groundswell, it in fact appears more likely that Merkel will find herself out of the top job towards the end of 2017, but as to who will replace her, that is much harder to determine.
The largest parties represented currently in the German Parliament include the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Merkel and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) who have in fact, strange as it may seem to some, formed Government with Merkel at its head with the largest opposition party - the Social Democrats (SPD) - a grand coalition indeed, but also a grand stifling of German democracy. Which of course has suited Merkel just fine.
That leaves the opposition parties of Die Linke (The Left) and the Greens. Former Merkel ally the Free Democratic Party (FDP) of the right, managed to receive only 4.8% of the popular vote at the last German election and, failing to cross the 5% threshold to secure seats, was subsequently evicted from the German Parliament due to the paucity of their vote.
But, when looking at the 2017 German Election, the most interesting party isn’t even represented in the German Parliament and never has been. The Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) was born less than four years ago and contested the 2013 German Election, its first, receiving 4.7% of the vote, just behind the FDP, but also just below the 5% threshold required to wins seats in the German Parliament. However, the recent migration ‘inundation’ advocated and propelled by their very own German Chancellor ‘The Mutt Mutti’ has caused extreme dissatisfaction in Germany with the political elite and in turn caused a huge spike in support for the AfD over the past year - and credible performances at recent German regional elections at which the AfD has performed admirably and indeed outperformed the governing CSU.
The AfD’s improving performances on the back of the migration tide would normally be expected to crest as more established parties align their policies more to the stated needs of the populace, but in the case of the 2017 German Election there are several wildcards that should propel the AfD to an even better performance at that very important, and pivotal, election.
What are these wildcards? Obviously the most prominent is the improving performance of anti-establishment parties as outlined above, which is set to continue at a steady drumbeat over the following year. That anti-establishment mindset is set to continue as the Euro currency zone experiences further ructions and upheaval over the following year as incipient and inevitable crises continue to plague the zone.
It is my view that the establishment has demonstrated a sufficient dexterity in kicking an ever-growing can down the road and that playbook is likely to continue to prove sufficient to ward off the worst effects of the economic deterioration that is hidden under the surface for at least the next year. That impetus will cease at the conclusion of the German Election, but is unlikely to be exposed for the folly it is before such time as Germans head to the polls.
So discounting those factors, the largest determinant to play to the favour of the AfD heading towards the election is likely to be renewed worries about excessive and dangerously uncontrolled inward migration to the Eurozone and Germany in particular - the magnet for many of these migrants of course being the shining star on the hill placed there by Merkel over the past year.
But why would one expect this crisis to play an increasing factor in 2017 when the political class across Europe has to an extent ‘woken up’ to their own depraved and misplaced ‘morality’ and claims to have learned the lessons of their folly?
Because in fact, they haven’t really, and because in fact, they are likely to once again be played for the fools they are by the devil at the Eastern end of the Mediterranean they made foolish and poorly thought out deals with in 2016. The madman in Ankara (or Istanbul depending on which day of the week we’re talking about) - Mr. Recep Tayyip ‘Mad Dog’ Erdogan.
Update:
The German Socialists have settled on a candidate for the Chancellorship later this year and rather than it being Socialist Party of Germany’s (SPD) current leader Sigmar Gabriel, it is former President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz.
Given his prior position, its fairly easy to see where Schulz is coming from - his solution to everything is more Europe, more Europe, and more Europe - a Europe as represented by the European Union (EU) of course. Given that, it really is a case of TweedleDum v TweedleDee if one considers the prospect of a match-up between Merkel and Schulz to be the German Chancellor post 2017 German Elections.
If that is really the choice presented to Germans later this year - it really is no choice at all and leaves the Dutch & French Elections as the pivotal elections to change the tone of discourse in Europe and prevent the world plunging into a new World War.
The die is soon to be cast, and we’ll know the results of the French Presidential Election by May - only a matter of three months away (February 2017).
2017 - THE TURKISH WILDCARD & MAD DOG’S MACHINATIONS
So what is this Turkish wildcard? Simply put it will be the revenge of the Turkish ‘Mad Dog’ Erdogan against what he will quite legitimately see as the craven betrayal of the Turkish people by the European political elite - led of course by the worst of the lot - pathetic Mutti Merkel of the new German Reich.
The EU has set itself up so comprehensively and incredibly stupidly to be played by the Sultan in Asia Minor that it would almost seem as though the circumstances that are set to unfold were pre-planned and set-up in some dark and smoke-filled back-office in Brussels. Maybe so. Except, to give the Europeans such credit for engineering their own demise would surely be beyond them and also so utterly and completely against their own stated interests that it beggars belief.
So what have they done?
Well, they signed a short-sighted and unenforceable and impossible deal with the devil. And for that immense tomfoolery, these elitist dodos will reap the bitter harvest they have sown.
As outlined above, the European Election season coming up in 2017 will be a defining period for the European Union and with revenge on his mind Sultan Erdogan is well-placed to hurry the process along.
As many as 3-5 million refugees from various conflicts, but mainly Syria and Iraq, are believed to reside in Turkey in refugee camps and elsewhere - and do you think any of these benighted folks want to go back to the war-torn lands to the south any-time soon?
No, of course not.
These refugees won’t be heading south again any-time soon, a least not this side of 2020.
But does anyone seriously think ‘Mad Dog’ Erdogan wants to keep these millions of refugees sucking off the Turkish teat indefinitely? Of course not!
So what to do?
Gain maximum benefit from these refugees. As Erdogan has seen when he pushed hundreds of thousands of desperate and homeless refugees towards Europe in 2015, these refugees can be used as a potent political weapon - and particularly against incumbent European politicians who thought they had his measure.
And who is the target? The target, the mark, is none other than Mutti Merkel - and the mark will be achieved - so the only question is when?
Looking at the calendar above suggests the button could be pushed any-time between March and July - to allow for a full and deep impact on Merkel’s re-election chances in September.
So when is it likely to be pushed? I’d suggest the run-up to a rather important summit in Germany at which all the major world leaders will be present will be the ideal time to aim for maximum impact. This year’s G20 Summit is set to be held in Hamburg, Germany on July 7-8, 2017 - and its sure to be full of fireworks - particularly as Erdogan torpedoes Merkel’s re-election chances in full view of the world and laughs in her face about it in her home-town G20 Summit!
For Erdogan, the imagery and opportunity is undeniable and irreplaceable and an opportunity not to be passed up. It is simply too delicious a prospect for the ‘Mad Dog’ and I expect to see triumphal grins from ‘Mad Dog’ and his entourage, and a bunch of shit-eating grins from Merkel and her cohorts who’ve just been played like the fools they are.
So where to from there? Onto 2018 - and Russia and a big year for the Northern Giant - a Russian Presidential Election and a Russian hosted FIFA World Cup - easily the biggest multi-national event to come to Russia in nearly 40 years - since the 1980 Moscow Summer Olympics….
THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - MARCH & APRIL 2018
& FIFA WORLD CUP RUSSIA - JUNE & JULY 2018
As stated above, the Russian Presidential Election in early 2018 comes after a series of elections in key European countries throughout 2017, and this isn’t even taking into consideration the possibility of a snap Spanish Election at any point during 2017 - which is always possible given the tumultuous political situation in Spain, and the looming Italian Election - which could also be called during 2017, but is more likely to be held around the same time as the Russian Presidential Election - in early 2018 (speculation suggests February 2018 is the likeliest month at present).
There has been considerable speculation concerning whether or not Putin will stand again for a fourth term as Russian President. However, given the global geo-political situation it’s surely impossible to contemplate Putin even considering walking away early in 2018.
The febrile nature of current geo-politics and the high likelihood the global geo-political situation will only be going in one direction through 2017 and into 2018 - ie markedly deteriorating even further along the current trajectory, suggest it would be the height of irresponsible statesmanship on then part of one of the world’s most senior and widely respected leaders to exit stage left and leave this mess in the lap of a successor - no matter how well that successor had been prepared by Putin himself and others in the Russian power structure.
It is simply unbelievable to seriously consider this.
Besides, with the Russian-hosted FIFA World Cup 2018 due to be held around Russia only a few months after the next Russian Presidential Election - how indeed could Putin pass up this opportunity to showcase Russia to the world from a hard-earned position of strength?
I just can’t see it.
Looking further down the calendar, we can look towards the end of Putin’s fourth term - which would conclude in mid 2024, and see a rather important centenary for the Russian Federation - the Centenary of the death of one Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - the father of the modern Russian nation.
Lenin died on January 21, 1924 - and the centenary of Lenin’s death will no doubt be celebrated with great vigor and respect in Russia in 2024 - and surely Putin would love to be at the helm to properly honour his predecessor, perhaps as the man who stands besides Lenin as the greatest leaders of modern Russia?
Putin will be there in 2024 - but will other current world leaders like Trump (2020?)??
I wager of the current crop, Putin will be the only one to welcome 2024 from the comfort of the Presidency.
RESULTS SO FAR 2016
Netherlands Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Treaty - Wednesday April 6, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Rejection of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
WON - 61.0%
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE. PARTY or CAUSE: Acceptance of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
LOST - 38.2%
United Kingdom 'Brexit' Referendum - Thursday June 23, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Voting to Exit the EU - Leave
WON - 51.9%
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Voting to Stay with the EU - Remain
LOST - 48.1%
Hungarian Refugee Referendum - Sunday October 2, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: President Viktor Orban and Hungarian control of Immigration & Refugees
WON - 98.4%
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Liberal Opposition and the EU control of EU Immigration & Refugees
LOST - 1.6%
USA Presidential Election - Tuesday November 8, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Donald Trump (Republican Party)
WON - 304 Electoral College Votes
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Hillary Clinton (Democratic Party)
LOST - 227 Electoral College Votes
Italian Constitutional Referendum - Sunday December 4, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Rejection of Renzi’s proposed anti-democratic Constitutional Reforms
WON - 59.1%
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Approval of Renzi’s proposed anti-democratic Constitutional Reforms
LOST - 40.9%
Austrian Presidential Election - Sunday December 4, 2016.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Norbert Hofer (Freedom Party of Austria - FPO)
LOST - 46.2%
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Alexander Van der Bellen (Austrian Green Party)
WON - 53.8%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election - Wednesday March 15, 2017.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Geert Wilders (Party for Freedom) - and Netherexit/ Nexit
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Prime Minister Mark Rutte (People’s Party for Freedom & Democracy)
French Presidential Election - Round 1, Sunday April 23, 2017.
French Presidential Election - Round 2, Sunday May 7, 2017.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Marine Le Pen (Front National)
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Francois Hollande (Socialists) & Nicolas Sarkozy (The Republicans)
German Legislative Election - Sunday September 24, 2017.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE:Alternative for Germany (AFD) led by Frauke Petry
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Chancellor Angela Merkel & CSU & SPD
Spanish Parliamentary Election 2017? Possible, but not confirmed.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Podemos led by Pablo Iglesias & Ciudidanos led by Albert Rivera
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: People’s Party led by Mariano Rajoy & PSOE led by Pedro Sanchez
Italian Parliamentary Election 2017? Possible, but not confirmed.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE:Five Star Movement (M5S) led by Beppe Grillo
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: Democratic Party of Italy led by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi
Russian Presidential Election - Sunday March 11 - Sunday April 1, 2018.
INSURGENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: President Vladimir Putin formerly of United Russia.
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE/ PARTY or CAUSE: The “Liberal” Opposition.